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Saturday 21st October Arizona State v Utah Free NCAAF Picks

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Arizona State +10)

The value here is with the Sun Devils as a double-digit dog once again. Arizona State is a team that continues to be undervalued, despite just beating the No. 5 team in the country. A big reason for that is they haven’t been a serious threat in the Pac-12 for years and were just 5-7 a season ago.

Utah is getting a lot of love for how they have played to start the year, most notably their near upsets in their last two games against Stanford and USC. What I think the public is overlooking here is that this is a really tough spot for the Utes.

They just laid everything they had on the line against the Trojans. To let a 14-point lead slip away and then miss an opportunity to win the game on a 2-point play is about as gut-wrenching a defeat as you will find. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a close defeat. Especially when it’s a game you think you should have won.

At the same time, I don’t know that the Utes would deserve to be laying more than a touchdown had they beat USC last week. I believe we are seeing Utah way overvalued simply because of the fact that they haven’t lost a game against the spread (5-0-1 ATS).

This is also a good matchup for Arizona State. While Utah’s defense is strong, they are much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Utes are just 77th against the pass compared to 30th against the run. Arizona State’s offense features the 25th ranked passing attack.

Let’s also not overlook how well Arizona State’s defense played against Washington. The Sun Devils held the Huskies to just 230 total yards and 14 first downs. The overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but that’s understandable given they have played the likes of Texas Tech, Oregon (prior to Justin Herbert getting hurt) and Stanford.

The Sun Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after holding their previous opponent to less than 20 points. I would take the points here, but also don’t hate a little extra on the money line. Give me the Sun Devils +10!

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Saturday 21st October Fresno State v San Diego State Free College Football Picks

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Fresno State +7.5

The betting markets have been slow to catch on to how good the Fresno State Bulldogs are this season. I think they’re still behind the eight ball here as the Bulldogs are catching 7.5 points at San Diego State in a game they will likely win outright tonight.

Jeff Tedford came back to college football in a good situation here as there were 16 returning starters for Fresno State. And he has made the most out of it. The Bulldogs are 4-2 this season with their two losses coming against two of the best teams in college football in Alabama and Washington, and they covered the spread in both games.

In fact, the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. They are coming off a 38-0 beat down of New Mexico last week, which is even more impressive when you consider the Lobos were coming off a bye week. I’m not so sure that Fresno State isn’t the best team in the Mountain West this season in what has proven to be a wide open conference.

This is an awful spot for the San Diego State Aztecs. They will be deflated after suffering their first loss of the season last week, a 14-31 upset home loss to Boise State. The air has been let out of the balloon now as the Aztecs realize they won’t be the Group of 5 representative for a New Year’s Bowl. I don’t expect them to get back up off the mat in time to put away a game Fresno State team by more than a touchdown this week.

The Bulldogs have really turned the corner since making the change to Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion a few weeks back. He has come in and lit it up by completing 65.8% of his passes for 966 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.7 per attempt. He has also rushed for 133 yards and 5.3 per carry, adding a nice dual-threat element to the offense that Chason Virgil simply did not have.

And this is actually a great matchup for Fresno State because their strength on defense is stopping the run, and San Diego State is an awful passing team that relies almost exclusively on the running the football. The Bulldogs are only allowing 111 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that normally average 157 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider they’ve had to face Alabama and Washington.

Fresno State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with SDSU. Bet Fresno State Saturday.

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